Mid April ’26 Season Temp Check

As I am writing this, the Chicago Cubs are 9-9 to begin the 2026 season after taking 2 out of 3 in Philly. If the Cubs were not able to take the last two of that series, this post might sound a lot more pessimistic after the Cubs were nearly swept by the Pirates in a weekend series at Wrigley. It only took a comeback win on Sunday after being down 5-0 to avoid the sweep in a series in which they did not even have to face perhaps the best pitcher in the league, Paul Skenes. 

The tough part about the beginning of the baseball season is that we really cannot say for sure who is good, who is average, and who will be the 2025 Colorado Rockies. There is so much that goes into a long baseball season that affects teams: injuries, clubhouse issues, and players suddenly regressing. I guess other than the Dodgers… we know they will be good (unfortunately). The Cubs started the season in Wrigley, with a series against the upstart Nationals, and then against the Angels, two teams that most predicted would “probably” not amount to much in the 2026 season. To start the season against these two teams and start their first road trip at 3-3 was… not ideal. A sane person might respond to this by saying that anything can happen in Wrigley in April, or that losing a couple of games in April to an inferior team is to be expected from time to time in the game of baseball. But I am a Cubs fan who has unfortunately seen the Cubs come close to winning the NL Central the past couple of years, but end up a couple of games behind the damn Milwaukee Brewers. With the money the Cubs are able to spend compared to the Brewers (which is not enough as it should be, but a different rant for another day), that is unacceptable. Yes, it is a long season, but after seeing the Cubs come up short for a division title the past couple of years, I am of the opinion that every game matters. 

The recent series against the Phillies definitely gives me more hope for the season than I did after watching the series against the Pirates, but I am still not sure this is a World Series team. An unfortunate season-ending injury for young pitcher Cade Horton also does not help, but that is not even my main concern. Watching the offense sputter in multiple games out of the gate is a significant cause for concern. Let’s take a look at the makeup of the lineup, which I believe is an extremely deep lineup, but lacks a true superstar bopper. 

2B Nico Hoerner: Nico has easily been my favorite hitter to watch so far this season. In the age of launch angle, home runs, and a lot of strikeouts, Nico is an old-fashioned hitter who does not give in, swings and misses very rarely, and is a great situational hitter. According to Baseball Reference, Nico already has a 1.5 WAR (Wins Above Replacement) through 18 games. Expect some regression, as Nico currently has a 10.8 walk percentage this season with a career walk percentage of 6.8%. According to Baseball Savant, he also has a 25.4% hard hit rate (which seems off compared to my eye test). Nico has been far from the problem so far this season, and he is a hitter that every team can use in their lineup. 

1B Michael Busch: Busch has had an extremely bad start to the year after a breakout 2025 season. One HAS to think that things will improve; his BABIP (batting average on balls in play) is a paltry .188 (according to Baseball Reference), which screams positive regression. But, according to Baseball Savant, the “under the hood numbers” line up with what we have seen so far, with a 29.2 hard hit percentage and average exit velocity of 82.6, which is in the bottom 1% of the league. Yikes. 

3B Alex Bregman: The 175 million dollar man! Unfortunately, a .659 OPS to start the season will not do it for the guy who has routinely hit in the 3 hole. You can definitely expect some positive regression, as Bregman has routinely been a 4 WAR player with an .OPS hovering around the .800 mark (according to Baseball Reference) the past 4 seasons. However, that is a big contract for a guy who is in his age 32 season, and I wonder how this one will age.  

LF Ian Happ: Ian Happ is a model of consistency. According to Baseball Reference, from the 2022 – 2025 seasons, Happ had a WAR of 3.5 and 4.3 each of those seasons, won a Gold Glove in each of those seasons, and hit between 17 and 25 home runs each year. He has enjoyed a solid start to the year in the power department, as evidenced by a 17% barrel rate according to Baseball Savant. Is Happ the caliber of hitter to be the clean-up hitter on a team that is supposed to be competing for a World Series? His career .OPS of .789 says he is a solid hitter, but probably not that guy. 

RF Seiya Suzuki: Seiya is a personal favorite of mine, but he definitely has not gotten it going yet. An unfortunate knee injury during the World Baseball Classic delayed his start to the year, and Seiya is clearly still getting going with a .654 OPS (on base plus slugging percentage). With a career OPS of .816, he is the least of my concerns. When Seiya gets hot, he is a top 15 hitter in the league, and he can carry this lineup. 

CF Pete Crow-Armstrong: PCA has had a pretty horrid start to the year. I had my concerns coming into the year after a rough 2nd half of the year in 2025. His profile of good power numbers, low on-base percentage, high chase rate, and also just being a magician on the base-paths, reminds me of another former Cub fan favorite, Javier Baez. PCA is so young and I think there is so much time for him to improve, but he may not be the caliber of hitter he was in the first half of 2025. A chase rate of 49.3%, according to Baseball Savant, is very concerning. 

DH Moises Ballesteros: Mo Baller has enjoyed a great start to what his hopefully his 1st full season with the Cubbies. A former top prospect that has a 60 grade hit tool (on the 20-80 scouting scale), he has shown that off with a .342 batting average to start the season. With a .393 BABIP, we can definitely expect some regression. But with a profile as a line-drive hitter with a good eye, I am confident Ballesteros will put together a solid rookie campaign. Ballesteros could be one of the next big-time Cubs homegrown prospect hitters who make an impact. 

C Carson Kelly/Miguel Amaya: Through April and May in 2025, I thought Carson Kelly was Barry Bonds reincarnated. He did come down to Earth the rest of the season, with an OPS of .761 for the year. A season-ending injury to Amaya (who is my wife’s favorite player) last year put more strain on Kelly and probably contributed to a decline in offensive production. That also led the Cubs to sign Reese McGuire in the 2nd half of 2025 to aid in catching duties. Feel free to insert your parking lot jokes here. Overall, I think the Cubs will get decent offensive production out of the catcher position, especially if Amaya stays healthy. The fabled Nelson Cruz advice has helped Amaya have an .814 OPS in 2025 and a .804 OPS to start 2026, albeit a small sample size. 

SS Dansby Swanson: I actually think that having a hitter like Dansby in the 9 hole is pretty solid. Dansby’s defense is so valuable that anything he provides with the bat is an added bonus. Expect Dansby to be around a .740 OPS with around 20 bombs, and a fair amount of swing and miss in his game. But hey, with 4 home runs to start the year, and a K:BB ratio of 19:14, maybe Dansby can push for the .800 OPS mark. 

So what do you see here? Personally, I see a collection of hitters that are very solid. A collection of hitters that will make a pitching staff work, and for the most part (cough cough PCA) will work counts and take their walks. Clearly, the Cubs have designed their team with a run prevention approach with Gold Glovers all over the field. I do fear, however, as we saw last year, the bats can go cold come October. Missing from the lineup is a clear superstar bopper, someone like Shohei, Judge, or even like Vlad Jr. who can truly carry a lineup and is consistently having seasons with a 1.000 OPS. In baseball, anything can happen come playoff time. A lot of the time, whoever can get hot at the right time ends up winning the whole thing (Texas Rangers, 2023). However, with a team like the Dodgers that SOMEHOW added Kyle Tucker to their lineup, the chances of someone else getting hot at the right time significantly decreased. 

Realistically, this Cubs team is a playoff team, but honestly, I can’t see them making it past the NLCS. Unless we see 2019 Alex Bregman, Moises Ballesteros have a top 1% outcome for his profile, or PCA cut down on his chase rate and become the player he was in the 1st half of last year, I don’t realistically see a World Series happening this year. Unfortunately, the other 29 clubs not named the Los Angeles Dodgers are fighting an uphill battle, so the Cubs are not alone. 

-DC